In his article posted in the Military-Industrial Courier, Doctor of Military Sciences, Colonel-General A. Zaitsev argues that Japan’s military potential is much higher than the Russian one.
In support of his point of view, he cites the following arguments. In the Far East, Russia concentrated 25 submarines, 10 ships in the ocean zone and 32 in the coastal. Japan has 66 ships, including 5 helicopter carriers, these ships can take American multipurpose F-35 fighters.
In addition, there are 18 submarines at the disposal of the Japanese Navy, of which one third are only recently launched. And that's not counting the minesweepers, tankers, rescuers and landing ships. Japan is able to attract 180 aircraft and 140 helicopters to combat missions.
What is the script?
According to Mr. Zaitsev, the scenario of a possible conflict between Russia and Japan is as follows. Taking advantage of its considerable superiority, Japan can attack Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands.
The United States will nominally stand aside and diligently convince Russia not to use weapons of mass destruction. China is likely to take a neutral, wait-and-see attitude. But the possibility of its entry into the conflict is permissible. After all, until now, there has been no firm rejection of territorial claims on Japan from Beijing.
According to Mr. Zaitsev's model, the conflict may end up in the disputed territories accommodating the US military.
By the way, in December 2018, The National Interest expressed the opinion that the Russian Navy is a fleet of "green water", that is, it is a force that acts only in coastal waters, and thus is fundamentally different from the fleets of Japan and the USA.