In response to the delivery of the S-300 air defense systems to the Syrian army, Israel may begin to sell unmanned aerial vehicles to Georgia and Ukraine. And we are talking not only about intelligence, but also about shock systems. This is reported by blogger El Murid, referring to information in the Israeli media.
In 2014, a tacit agreement was concluded between Russia and Israel, in accordance with which Tel Aviv suspended the sale of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine, in exchange for Moscow’s refusal to transfer modern air defense systems to Damascus. After the Russian IL-20 was shot down off the coast of Latakia, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the S-300 air defense complex would be supplied to the Syrian army. Such a decision immediately caused serious concern not only in Israel, but also in the United States, which called it a "big mistake."
Recall that on the night of September 17-18, a Russian IL-20 electronic reconnaissance aircraft was shot down near the coast of Syria. The cause of the tragedy was a "friendly" fire: the car was hit by the Syrian air defense system S-200, which participated in repelling the next Israeli air raid. The media reported that the S-300 had already been delivered to Syria on September 22 with the help of two Russian transport aircraft.
Will the UAV be able to change the balance of power in the Donbas?
Despite its relatively modest size, Israel has one of the most advanced military-industrial complexes in the world. Currently, this state is one of the largest exporters of weapons on the planet. ATGMs, volley fire systems and drones made by Israelis are particularly popular.
In recent years, Israel has developed several anti-drum percussion UAVs (for example, the HERO or Harpy series) that are capable of performing the widest range of tasks.
At the beginning of the conflict in the east of Ukraine, in 2014, a delegation from Kiev visited Israel and negotiated the supply of UAVs for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. First of all, Ukrainians were interested in Aeronautics products: Dominator, Aerostar and Orbiter drones. However, then no deals were made. According to unofficial information, the reason for this was the fear of a negative reaction from Russia.
If we start supplying Assad with modern air defense systems, then Kiev will most likely receive drones, which today are among the best in the world. In recent years, Ukraine has been able to establish its own production of drones, but they are only capable of carrying out reconnaissance tasks and target designation. Attack drones can quite drastically change the situation in the Donbas, and tip the balance in favor of the APU. According to the Minsk agreements, Ukraine does not have the right to use military aircraft during the conflict, and this deprived it of a serious advantage. Moreover, the supply of air defense systems "from the military entourage" carries too serious political risks for Russia, especially considering the story of the "Buk" and the Malaysian "Boeing" shot down.
In general, the confrontation with Israel is unlikely to benefit Russia. Strengthening Iranian influence near its borders forces Tel Aviv to take the most stringent measures. But if at least one Israeli plane is shot down by the Russian air defense, then a direct clash with Israel is very likely, on the side of which the United States will inevitably come out. They have also said that supplies of the S-300 Assad pose a threat to American forces in the region. Naturally, no one wants such a development of events, but any war has its own logic.
